On paper, Africa is poised to become a key supplier of green hydrogen, and the EU wants in on the continent’s repository of this decarbonization fuel early. Of the 52 countries across Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, and Namibia have moved fast to organize themselves into a grouping called the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance.
High stakes
There is so much at stake. Baker Mackenzie consultancy forecasts that Africa could produce around 55 million tons of green hydrogen annually by 2035. On a continent that’s known for the ‘resource curse’ phenomenon, critics are asking questions. The resource curse is an investment model in which foreign corporations extract precious metals, pay excessively low tax tariffs, and ship the metals abroad for high-value refining in China, Europe, or North America. Are the EU’s green hydrogen ambitions in Africa a new round of exploitative extractivism?
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“The optics are glamorous – Africa will produce, export, and earn billions from these tens of millions of tons of green hydrogen. Reality could be sobering,” warns environmentalist and climate regeneration expert Shamiso Mupara.
Naked ambition
Namibia and South Africa are flagbearers of Africa’s serious ambitions to position itself in the global green hydrogen supply chains. In May last year, the state-owned Namibia Ports Authority (Namports) announced that it had reached an agreement with Belgium’s Port of Antwerp-Bruges consortium to construct a € 250 million hydrogen and ammonia storage and export facility at the Port of Walvis Bay, located along Namibia’s Atlantic coastline. Both corporations will jointly establish the project, with completion expected by 2027. Interestingly, an Italian Swiss corp, MSC Shipping Company, will carry the expected hydrogen to Europe.
The primary objective of the deal is to refuel passing ships and export ammonia and green hydrogen to heavy industries in Germany, Belgium, and other European manufacturing hubs. In South Africa, a neighbor of Namibia, European venture capital is flooding into the development of green hydrogen projects. For instance, Hive Energy Africa (UK-owned) is creating one of the world’s most ambitious green ammonia plants in Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa.
The Europeans are frank about their ambitions. As per Antwerp port CEO Jacques Vandermeiren, in May 2024, the hope is that Namibia can serve ‘as a production hub of green molecules and Antwerp-Bruges as a gateway to serve the European market’.
Contrarian
Nick Hedley, founder of the industry-focused newsletter, The Playbook, questions why Africa’s expected green hydrogen supplies are being earmarked primarily for European industrial belts, when the decarbonization pace in Africa is the world’s slowest and most underfunded.
“It would make more sense to use more of the hydrogen domestically and regionally,” he says.
Manufacturing industries in South Africa, the continent’s ‘wealthiest’ economy, are hungry for low-carbon fuel like green hydrogen. The task is urgent. South Africa is the world’s 12th-largest coal-producing country, and currently, the component of renewable energy mix in its total power is around 11%. Leaning on their green hydrogen, South Africa and the continent can become serious exporters of low-carbon goods to the rest of the world.
This is critically important as the EU erects its tough Common Border Adjustment Mechanism, a law that will scrutinize the production energy component of goods being shipped into the bloc.
Pragmatism
However, investors representing global money in South Africa’s green hydrogen ecosystem don’t frame the issue at hand as an ‘Africa vs Europe’ scramble. Colin Loubser, CEO of Hive Energy Africa (a UK-owned company operating globally in over a dozen countries), is developing one of the world’s most ambitious green ammonia plants in Nelson Mandela Bay, along South Africa’s eastern coastline.
He says: “Africa can extract superior benefits by supplying its green hydrogen output to already developed economies in Europe, and others.”
Africa doesn’t yet have similar ‘decarbonization timeframes or imperatives as Europe,’ he adds. However, he is careful to point out that several domestic markets on the continent already utilize large volumes of green hydrogen and ammonia, particularly steel, cement, and fertilizer factories in South Africa, Egypt, and other countries.
By partnering with green hydrogen financiers and investors from abroad, Africa can greatly benefit from building local skills, capabilities, processing facilities, and sophisticated transportation networks.
“It is not necessarily a ‘bad’ thing for developing countries to hold back as their domestic markets can benefit significantly from the lessons learned from those first movers in Europe and other developed regions from this nascent industry, to leverage into a more evolved industry which has better more cost-effective technologies, as the demand manifests and becomes sustainable,” Loubser says.
Exporting first to where a demand for ‘green’ products has been created fits Africa’s desire for an equitable, inclusive, and tangible energy transition trade.
The scale of investment required necessitates global collaboration to fund the project; otherwise, it would be very difficult to establish such a large-scale project. Hence, to recoup initial returns, investors will likely focus on shipping the product to high-paying markets, such as the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium.
Hedley acknowledges Loubser’s take and expands on the point that countries like South Africa are not ‘passive’ recipients of Western money used to finance green hydrogen exploration. South Africa is actively taking the initiative. For instance, the Prieska Power Reserve project in South Africa’s Northern Cape province, which aims to produce large volumes of green hydrogen and ammonia, is designed, led, and financed domestically. Prieska is expected to produce 80,000 tons/annum of green hydrogen and ammonia from the 2027/28 fiscal year, with the output channeled to local cities and factories.
Costly physics
However, he remains wary of the physics of shipping green hydrogen produced in Namibia all the way to Europe. “There are many energy engineers who question the cost and feasibility of transporting hydrogen long distances, since hydrogen has a very low energy density by volume,” he says.
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